Customer Success Renewal Playbook: Health Scores That Predict Churn

Category: Academy · Stage: Implementation

By Max Beech, Head of Content

Updated 5 October 2025

A customer goes dark six weeks before renewal. You scramble to reconnect, but they've already evaluated competitors. The churn was predictable; you just weren't tracking the right signals.

Renewals don't happen in the final month. They're the result of continuous engagement, value realisation, and relationship health throughout the entire contract. This playbook shows you how to spot risk early and intervene before customers mentally check out.

TL;DR

• Calculate health scores using engagement, support sentiment, and feature adoption data
• Run quarterly business reviews to surface value and uncover expansion opportunities
• Set renewal touchpoints at 180, 90, 60, and 30 days before contract end
• Use Chaos to trigger context-aware nudges when health scores drop

Jump to:

1. Why do renewals fail?
2. Building your health score model
3. The QBR that actually delivers value
4. Renewal touchpoint timeline

Why do renewals fail?

Customers don't churn because of one bad experience. They drift. Product usage declines, they stop responding to outreach, and decision-makers change. By the time renewal conversations start, the relationship is already cold.

According to ChurnZero's 2024 State of Customer Success report, 68% of churn is predictable 90 days in advance using engagement data, yet only 32% of CS teams have proactive monitoring in place.^[1]^ The gap between knowing churn is coming and doing something about it is where revenue leaks.

Building your health score model

A health score is a weighted calculation that reflects how likely a customer is to renew. It typically combines three dimensions: engagement, satisfaction, and value realisation.

Engagement metrics (40% weight)

Track how actively the customer uses your product:

• Login frequency
• Feature adoption rate
• Number of active users vs. licensed seats
• Support ticket volume (moderate = engaged, zero = disengaged)

A sharp drop in logins is the earliest warning sign. If your champion hasn't logged in for three weeks, investigate before assuming everything's fine.

Satisfaction metrics (30% weight)

Measure how the customer feels about the product:

• NPS or CSAT scores from recent surveys
• Sentiment analysis of support tickets (positive, neutral, negative)
• Escalation rate (high escalations = dissatisfaction)
• Response time to your emails (ghosting = problem)

Use natural language processing (NLP) tools to scan support tickets for frustration keywords like "still broken," "disappointed," or "considering alternatives."

Value realisation metrics (30% weight)

Confirm the customer is achieving their goals:

• Progress toward stated objectives from onboarding
• ROI metrics relevant to their use case (time saved, revenue generated)
• Integration depth (more integrations = higher switching cost)
• Expansion signals (asking about premium features, adding users)

| Health score | Indicator | Action required | |--------------|-----------|-----------------| | 80-100 (Green) | Healthy engagement, high satisfaction | Focus on expansion opportunities | | 60-79 (Yellow) | Declining usage or mixed sentiment | Schedule check-in, offer training | | Below 60 (Red) | Low engagement, negative feedback | Immediate intervention, escalate internally |

Automate the calculation

Don't calculate health scores manually each week. Connect your product analytics (Mixpanel, Amplitude) and support platform (Zendesk, Intercom) to a CS tool (Gainsight, ChurnZero) or a custom dashboard. Set alerts when any account drops below 70.

The QBR that actually delivers value

Quarterly Business Reviews (QBRs) should feel like a strategy session, not a sales pitch. Done well, they reinforce value and uncover expansion needs. Done poorly, they're seen as a box-ticking exercise.

Prepare ruthlessly

Before the call, gather:

1. Usage data: Which features they've adopted, which they haven't touched
2. Success metrics: Quantifiable wins (e.g., "Your team has saved 120 hours this quarter using automation")
3. Industry benchmarks: How they compare to similar customers
4. Roadmap preview: Upcoming features relevant to their goals

Share a pre-read document 48 hours before the meeting so they come prepared with questions.

Structure the agenda

First 10 minutes: Review the customer's original goals and progress toward them. Lead with value: "You wanted to reduce onboarding time by 30%. You've hit 35% reduction. Here's the breakdown."

Next 15 minutes: Highlight underutilised features that could unlock more value. Frame this as opportunity, not criticism: "We noticed you haven't set up custom workflows yet. Teams that do typically see another 15% efficiency gain. Want to explore that together?"

Final 10 minutes: Ask about their evolving needs. What's changed in their business? Are they hiring? Launching new products? This is where expansion opportunities surface naturally.

Follow-up immediately

Within 24 hours, send a summary email with action items, timeline, and next steps. Assign owners for each task. If you promised a training session or custom integration guidance, schedule it before the call ends.

Renewal touchpoint timeline

Don't wait until 30 days before renewal to start the conversation. Structure touchpoints throughout the year.

180 days out: The health check

If the health score is green, this is a light email: "Halfway through your contract—thought it'd be good to sync on how things are going and share what's coming in the next six months."

If the score is yellow or red, escalate immediately. Book a call to diagnose issues and co-create a recovery plan.

90 days out: The strategic review

Position this as a QBR focused on long-term partnership. Ask: "What does success look like for you in the next year? How can we help you get there?" This is when you introduce multi-year agreements or expanded tiers.

60 days out: The commercial conversation

Finance and procurement need time. Send renewal paperwork early with a clear breakdown: current plan, proposed plan, pricing, and payment terms. Offer incentives for early commitment (e.g., 10% discount if renewed before 30 days out).

30 days out: The close

If you've done the earlier work, this is confirmation, not negotiation. A quick call to finalise terms and address any last-minute questions. If you're still negotiating at 30 days, something went wrong at the 90-day mark.

How does renewal tracking integrate with Chaos?

Set Chaos reminders tied to contract dates: "Acme Corp renewal in 90 days—schedule QBR." When health scores drop, trigger a context-aware nudge: "Acme Corp hasn't logged in for 2 weeks—reach out to Sarah." This shifts renewal management from reactive to proactive.

For cross-functional teams, check our AI Daily Standup Automation guide to see how CS, Sales, and Product can share insights without endless meetings. If you're managing a high volume of accounts, the Agentic Lifecycle Dashboard offers automation patterns to scale personal touch.

What if a customer won't engage?

If they're ghosting emails, try different channels:

• LinkedIn message to your champion
• Call their exec sponsor directly
• Offer a quick 15-minute "we miss you" call with no agenda

If they're still unresponsive, accept that churn may be inevitable. Document what you tried, surface learnings to your team, and focus energy on recoverable accounts.

Key takeaways

• Health scores combine engagement, satisfaction, and value realisation to predict churn
• QBRs should deliver strategic value, not just report metrics
• Start renewal conversations at 180 days, not 30 days before contract end
• Use Chaos to automate health score alerts and renewal touchpoint reminders

Summary

Renewals aren't won in the final month. They're the cumulative result of engagement, value delivery, and proactive relationship management throughout the contract. A health score system spots risk early, structured QBRs reinforce value, and a timeline of touchpoints ensures nothing falls through the cracks. With Chaos tracking each account's journey, you'll never be surprised by churn again.

Next steps

1. Define your health score model and set up automated calculation from product and support data
2. Review your current customer base and identify any accounts below 70 health score
3. Schedule QBRs for the next quarter and prepare pre-read documents for each
4. Configure Chaos alerts for renewal touchpoints at 180, 90, 60, and 30 days before contract dates

About the author

Max Beech partners with customer success teams to build retention systems that scale. Every playbook is informed by data from high-performing CS orgs.

Review note: Renewal framework validated with three SaaS companies (50-500 customers, $500K-$5M ARR) in September 2025.