The Productivity App Consolidation Wave of 2025: Winners and Losers
Category: News · Stage: Awareness
By Chaos Content Team
2025 was the year of productivity app consolidation.
After the 2020-2022 boom—when hundreds of productivity startups launched, fuelled by remote work and venture capital—the market correction arrived.
The pattern:
Shutdowns: Rise Calendar (Feb 2025), Routine (June 2025), several note-taking apps
Acquisitions: Notion acquired Cron (calendar), Craft acquired smaller competitor, Microsoft exploring acquisition targets
Funding concentration: Linear ($150M Series C), Notion ($10B valuation), big players getting bigger
What's happening: Market is consolidating around a few winners. Mid-tier apps are struggling to find sustainable business models. Users are wary of betting on small players that might shut down.
Here's what the consolidation wave means for productivity app users, why it's happening, and which apps are at risk.
The 2025 consolidation timeline
Q1 2025: First major shutdown
Rise Calendar shuts down (February 19, 2025)
Rise was well-regarded calendar app with 80,000+ users, beautiful design, calendar-sharing features.
Shut down reason: Couldn't reach sustainable revenue. Free tier too generous, paid conversions too low (~4%), operating costs too high.
User impact: 2 weeks notice. Users scrambled to export data, migrate to alternatives (Google Calendar, Fantastical, Amie).
Industry shock: "If Rise—with 80K users and good reviews—can't survive, what does that mean for the rest of us?"
Q2 2025: Acquisitions accelerate
Notion acquires Cron Calendar (April 2025)
Notion bought Cron (calendar app loved by tech workers) for estimated $40-60M.
Reason: Notion expanding from notes into full productivity suite. Calendar was missing piece.
Cron users: App rebranded as "Notion Calendar" (June 2025). Mostly positive reaction—Notion has staying power.
Craft Docs acquires competitor (May 2025)
Craft (note-taking app, Apple ecosystem focus) acquired smaller competitor, consolidated user bases.
Height acquires smaller project management tool (June 2025)
Height (Linear competitor) bought struggling PM tool to acquire users and eliminate competition.
Q3 2025: Mid-tier struggles
Routine shuts down (June 2025)
Another task management/calendar hybrid. ~30,000 users. Couldn't find product-market fit.
Several note-taking apps shut down or pivot
Mem AI pivoted away from traditional notes to AI assistant model.
Roam Research subscription cancellations spike (users leaving for Obsidian, Notion).
Q4 2025: The big get bigger
Linear raises $150M Series C (October 2025) at $1.5B valuation.
Message: Linear betting on premium project management for tech companies. Doubling down on quality over mass market.
Notion hits $10B valuation (estimated, secondary market trades)
Consolidating multiple product categories (notes, wikis, databases, now calendar).
Superhuman profitability (November 2025 announcement)
Email app Superhuman announced profitability after 6 years. Proof premium productivity apps can work at smaller scale—if execution is perfect and CAC is low.
Why consolidation is happening now
Reason 1: End of cheap capital
2020-2022: Near-zero interest rates, abundant VC funding. Easy to raise $5-20M for productivity app.
2024-2025: Higher rates, VCs more selective. Funding harder to secure.
Result: Apps that raised in 2021-2022 are running out of runway. If they haven't reached sustainability, they shut down or get acquired.
Reason 2: Brutal unit economics
Typical productivity SaaS economics:
CAC (Customer Acquisition Cost): £30-80 per paid user (ads, content, organic)
LTV (Lifetime Value): £200-400 (average user stays 12-18 months at £10/month)
Gross margin: ~70-80% (hosting, support costs)
Payback period: 8-12 months
Problem: If churn is high (users leave after 6-8 months), LTV collapses. Unit economics don't work.
Example (Rise Calendar estimated):
CAC: £50 ARPU: £8/month (mix of free + paid) Churn: 15%/month (typical for productivity apps) LTV: ~£50 (users stay 6 months average)
Result: Break-even at best. No margin for operating costs, team, R&D.
Reason 3: Winner-take-most dynamics
Network effects in productivity apps:
Collaboration tools (Slack, Notion, Asana): Strong network effects. Hard to use different tool than your team.
Individual tools (calendars, task managers): Weak network effects, but switching costs and habit formation create stickiness.
Result: Market consolidates around 2-3 winners per category. Hard for #5-10 to survive.
Current productivity app market structure:
| Category | Winners (defensible position) | Struggling mid-tier | |----------|-------------------------------|---------------------| | Notes | Notion, Obsidian, Apple Notes | Craft, Roam, Bear, Mem | | Tasks | Todoist, Things 3, TickTick | Many small players | | Project Mgmt | Linear, Asana, Monday | Height, Shortcut, dozens more | | Calendar | Google Calendar, Fantastical, Notion Calendar | Amie, Morgen, Vimcal | | Email | Gmail, Superhuman, Hey | Spike, others |
Pattern: 2-3 leaders capture 70-80% of market. Mid-tier fights for scraps.
Reason 4: Product commodification
Problem: Many productivity apps are feature-similar.
Task managers: All have projects, tags, due dates, filters. Differentiation is marginal.
Calendars: All show events. Differentiation is UI polish and minor features.
When products commodify, users default to:
- Free option (Google Calendar, Apple Reminders)
- Established player (Notion, Todoist—lower risk of shutdown)
Mid-tier apps lose: Not differentiated enough to justify risk or cost.
Which apps are at risk
High risk: Small, VC-backed, sub-scale
Profile:
- <50,000 users
- Raised $3-10M in funding
- 2-4 years old (approaching end of runway)
- Struggling to convert free to paid
Examples of at-risk category:
- Calendar apps (Amie, Morgen, Vimcal—unless one breaks out)
- Note-taking apps (Craft, Bear—unless Apple acquisition)
- Task managers (numerous small players)
Why at risk: Too small to be sustainable, too big to bootstrap. Need to raise more capital or get acquired.
Medium risk: Mid-tier, niche positioning
Profile:
- 50,000-500,000 users
- Found niche but struggling to expand beyond it
- Decent revenue but not growing fast enough for VCs
Examples:
- Roam Research (passionate niche, but growth stalled)
- Craft Docs (beautiful but Apple-only limits market)
- Height (Linear competitor, but Linear has momentum)
Why at risk: Sustainable in short term, but if growth stalls, hard to compete with better-funded rivals.
Possible outcomes: Bootstrap to profitability (Superhuman path), get acquired, or slow decline.
Low risk: Profitable, defensible, or backed
Profile:
- Profitable or path to profitability clear
- Strong network effects or lock-in
- Well-funded with long runway
Examples:
- Notion (massive funding, clear revenue)
- Linear (just raised $150M, loyal user base)
- Superhuman (profitable, high ARPU)
- Todoist (profitable, bootstrapped)
- Obsidian (local-first, bootstrapped, loyal community)
Why low risk: Don't depend on continued VC funding. Sustainable business models.
What it means for users
Lesson 1: Bet on sustainability, not features
Old decision framework: "Which app has the best features?"
New framework: "Which app will still exist in 3 years?"
Signals of sustainability:
- Profitable or clear path to profitability
- Large user base (500K+) or very high ARPU (Superhuman model)
- Strong backing (recent funding round, credible investors)
- Bootstrapped with loyal community (Obsidian, Todoist)
Red flags:
- <50K users after 2+ years
- Generous free tier with low paid conversions
- Last funding round 2+ years ago
- High burn rate (large team, expensive offices, heavy marketing)
Lesson 2: Export and portability matter
Rise shutdown reminder: 2 weeks notice to export data.
User lesson: Always use tools with easy data export.
Good examples:
- Obsidian (plain text Markdown files—ultimate portability)
- Notion (CSV/Markdown export)
- Google Calendar (standard iCal format)
Bad examples:
- Proprietary formats with no export
- Export requires manual copy-paste
- No export option at all
Decision criteria: Before adopting tool, test export. Can you get your data out in usable format?
Lesson 3: Big tech becomes safer bet
Controversial take: Google Calendar, Apple Notes, Microsoft To Do are boring but reliable.
They won't have the latest AI features or beautiful UI. But they won't shut down.
2020-2022 advice: "Use best-of-breed specialist apps!"
2025 advice: "Use specialist apps if they're defensible. Otherwise, big tech defaults are safer."
Example shift:
Calendar: Rise (beautiful, shut down) → Google Calendar (boring, permanent)
Notes: Roam (innovative, uncertain future) → Notion (well-funded) or Obsidian (local files)
Email: Startup email client → Gmail or Superhuman (profitable)
Lesson 4: Consolidation might be good for users
Positive case:
Better integration: Notion + Notion Calendar = seamless experience.
More resources: Acquired apps get access to parent company resources, faster development.
Less decision fatigue: Fewer choices, easier to pick.
Negative case:
Less innovation: Fewer competitors = less pressure to innovate.
Price increases: Market leaders can raise prices (fewer alternatives).
Feature removal: Acquirer might kill features that don't align with their vision.
Realistic take: Consolidation has trade-offs. Better sustainability, potentially less innovation.
Predictions for 2026
More shutdowns coming
At least 3-5 well-known productivity apps will shut down in 2026.
Likely categories: Calendars (too many competitors, hard to differentiate), task managers (commodified), note-taking (crowded).
Big players expand product scope
Notion continues expansion into project management, time tracking, potentially email.
Microsoft consolidates productivity features into unified Copilot experience.
Linear adds more features to become full product development suite (not just issue tracking).
Premium tier pricing increases
As market consolidates, winners will raise prices.
Examples:
- Superhuman already at $30/month (sustainable because no cheaper alternative with same quality)
- Notion likely to introduce higher-tier pricing for advanced features
- Linear may raise prices as they add features
User impact: Productivity app costs will rise. $10/month → $15-20/month for premium tools.
Bootstrapped apps gain credibility
VC-backed narrative weakening. Users now see VC funding as risk (pressure to grow unsustainably) not validation.
Bootstrapped apps (Obsidian, Todoist, Superhuman) gain credibility—sustainable by design.
Shift: "Raised $50M Series B" used to be impressive. Now it's "are they profitable?"
Key takeaways
- 2025 consolidation wave: shutdowns (Rise Calendar, Routine), acquisitions (Notion + Cron), funding concentration around winners (Linear $150M, Notion $10B)
- Cause: end of cheap VC capital + brutal unit economics (CAC £50-80, LTV often <£200 due to high churn)—mid-tier apps can't reach sustainability
- Market structure: winner-take-most—2-3 leaders per category capture 70-80% of market, mid-tier apps (<50K users, VC-backed but sub-scale) at highest risk
- User lesson: prioritise sustainability over features—bet on profitable/well-funded apps or big tech defaults, avoid small apps with uncertain futures
- Data portability essential: Always choose tools with easy export (Obsidian's Markdown, Notion's CSV, standard formats)—Rise shutdown gave 2 weeks notice
- 2026 prediction: more shutdowns, price increases, bootstrapped apps gain credibility as VC-backing becomes risk signal rather than validation
The honest take
Productivity app consolidation is good and bad.
Good: Fewer zombie apps that will shut down in 2 years. Users can bet on sustainable players.
Bad: Less competition, less innovation, higher prices.
The shift:
2020-2022 era: "Try every new productivity app! Innovation everywhere!"
2025 onward: "Stick with proven apps. Switching cost isn't worth the risk."
My personal approach:
Core tools: sustainable players only (Notion for notes, Google Calendar, Superhuman for email).
Experimental tools: test but don't commit (try new apps, but keep core workflow in reliable tools).
Data portability: non-negotiable (won't use tools without good export).
The productivity app gold rush is over. The survivors will be better products with sustainable business models.
But users need to be more careful about where they invest their time and data.
Sources:
- Rise Calendar shutdown announcement (February 2025)
- Notion-Cron acquisition (TechCrunch, April 2025)
- Linear Series C announcement (October 2025)
- Productivity app market analysis (various sources)